UBS Lowers UPS Q3 EPS Estimate Amid Higher Share Count, Offsets Fuel Tailwinds

UBS Securities this week adjusted its third‑quarter earnings per share (EPS) estimate for United Parcel Service (UPS), citing a higher diluted share count that offsets positive fuel‑price tailwinds in domestic operations. The brokerage lowered its Q3 EPS forecast from $1.67 to $1.63, matching consensus expectations, and also reduced its Q4 estimate from $2.72 to $2.70. Despite the revisions, UBS maintained a Buy rating on UPS shares with a target price of $124. (Reported October 2, 2026)

UBS projects that UPS’s diluted share count will rise to 853 million for both Q3 and Q4, up from previous estimates of 837 million for Q3 and 835 million for Q4, thereby diluting EPS forecasts. The brokerage sees domestic volume declining approximately 3.6% year‑over‑year in Q3, compared to a 3.3% drop in Q2, though fuel‑surcharge tailwinds and favorable shipment mix may help offset this pressure. UBS continues to expect neutral fuel‑price impact overall, with tailwinds in the U.S. balanced against international headwinds. (Reported October 2, 2026)

The UBS revision arrives this week ahead of UPS’s Q3 earnings scheduled for October 27, 2026. The updated EPS outlook reflects cautious sentiment on volume trends, higher share dilution, and shifting fuel dynamics, despite UBS’s continued positive outlook on UPS’s valuation with its $124 share‑price target. (Reported October 2, 2026)

Looking ahead, investors will watch how UPS’s third‑quarter results align with UBS’s projections, particularly regarding volume trends, fuel surcharges, and share‑count impact. Given the sizeable adjustment to EPS estimates, earnings surprises either way could influence market sentiment. UPS’s upcoming conference call on October 27 will likely shed further light on these dynamics.