This article reviews last week's decisive USD moves: a spike in the DXY after a strong U.S. NFP print and a subsequent pullback when geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased. It explains the drivers—labor data, Treasury yields, oil—and the practical implications for key pairs such as USD/INR.

Heightened Middle East tensions and a spike in oil pushed safe-haven flows into the US dollar last week. With the Dollar Index near 99.5 and Fed rate expectations holding, traders face volatility ahead of key US data and the upcoming FOMC meeting.

The dollar posted a technical rebound last week, with the DXY around 99.65 as of March 22, 2026. EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY moved sharply as traders reacted to positioning and risk flows rather than a single macro shock.

This article reviews last week’s concrete drivers behind U.S. dollar strength: the Fed’s hold and higher-for-longer messaging, rising oil that lifted inflation expectations and affected exchange rates, and targeted emerging-market central bank interventions in India and Nigeria that shifted specific USD pairs.

A surge in safe-haven flows after Middle East tensions, coupled with US February CPI and stronger services and employment signals, propelled the dollar toward a key DXY 100 level. The Fed’s March meeting remains the next major catalyst for FX direction.

A hotter-than-expected PPI and rising energy prices this week forced markets to trim expected Fed rate cuts for 2026, driving a pronounced dollar rally. USD strength showed up against the yen and other major currencies while options markets priced a dollar-biased skew. With key U.S. inflation readings and the March FOMC meeting ahead, volatility and two-way trading are likely to persist.