Moderna Gains: $54M CEPI Deal, RS Rating Up

Introduction

Moderna (Nasdaq: MRNA) had a week that combined tangible program funding with a modest technical boost. The company secured up to $54.3 million from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) to support a pivotal Phase 3 trial of its mRNA‑1018 bird‑flu vaccine, and Investor’s Business Daily upgraded Moderna’s Relative Strength (RS) rating from 67 to 73. Both items matter to investors: one directly reduces clinical and financial risk for a late‑stage program, the other signals improving price performance. Yet fundamentals—recent revenue declines and zero earnings growth—remain substantial counterweights.

CEPI Funding: De‑risking a Late‑Stage Asset

Details and immediate effects

On December 18, 2025, CEPI committed up to $54.3 million to underwrite Moderna’s Phase 3 trial of mRNA‑1018, targeted at an avian influenza strain. The trial is slated to begin in early 2026 in the U.S. and U.K., and Moderna agreed to reserve 20% of production capacity for low‑ and middle‑income countries. For shareholders, this kind of external funding resembles an insurance policy: it lowers the company’s direct cash burden for a costly late‑stage study and boosts the chance that the program reaches a readout without forcing large reallocations of internal resources.

Why it matters for the stock

CEPI’s award is more than PR — it materially alters Moderna’s cash flow calculus for a late‑stage program. If the Phase 3 trial progresses on schedule and reports positive data, Moderna could unlock a new, durable vaccine franchise beyond its COVID‑19 business. That outcome would be a clear positive for long‑term valuation. Conversely, any delays or negative results would still carry downside; the funding reduces but does not eliminate program risk.

Technical Momentum and Market Perception

IBD Relative Strength upgrade

On December 26, 2025, Investor’s Business Daily moved Moderna’s RS rating from 67 to 73. This upgrade reflects improved price behavior relative to the broader market over the past 12 months. In technical terms, RS in the 70s suggests stabilizing demand but not the kind of breakout behavior investors associate with a fresh institutional accumulation (commonly an RS of 80+). For traders, this can justify closer monitoring and tactical entries; for longer‑term investors, it’s one of several signals to weigh against fundamentals.

Technical signal vs. fundamentals

Think of the RS upgrade as better weather for a sailor: it doesn’t change the destination, but it can make the next leg of the journey easier. Moderna still reported a meaningful revenue contraction in the most recent quarter (around a 45% drop) and no earnings growth. Those are practical constraints on valuation that a technical uptick cannot erase.

Policy Shifts and Strategic Implications

EU and U.K. investment in mRNA research

Recent commentary indicates that the U.K. and European Union are increasing support for mRNA research and manufacturing even as U.S. emphasis cools. For Moderna, which has significant R&D and manufacturing capacity in the U.S., this may translate into new collaborative opportunities, talent flows, and potential regulatory or funding partnerships overseas. A more favorable international environment can smooth clinical operations and supply chain planning for future programs.

What investors should watch

• Phase 3 timeline and enrollment milestones for mRNA‑1018 (early‑2026 start, interim/readout expectations).
• Quarterly guidance and revenue trends—specifically cadence of COVID‑19 related sales vs. new vaccine launches.
• Partnerships or manufacturing agreements in the EU/U.K. that could unlock non‑U.S. funding or capacity.
• Further technical confirmation: RS moving above 80 or sustained volume supporting price gains.

Conclusion

The CEPI award and IBD RS upgrade together create a clearer, if incremental, set of positives for Moderna (MRNA) on the Nasdaq‑100. The CEPI funding materially de‑risks a late‑stage bird‑flu program and signals external validation of Moderna’s mRNA platform. The RS improvement shows healthier price action but stops short of a decisive breakout. Investors should balance these developments against recent revenue declines and the company’s execution risk. In practical terms, monitoring trial milestones, revenue trajectory, and any new international partnerships will be critical to assessing whether these developments translate into sustained upside for MRNA shares.