Apple iPhone Surge, China Rebound, Foldable Upside

Introduction

Apple delivered a string of concrete developments this week that matter to investors: robust iPhone 17 demand, a measurable sales rebound in China, looming memory-cost pressure heading into 2026, and bullish forecasts for Apple’s first foldable device. These items offer a clearer, less speculative view of what could drive Apple’s revenue and profit trajectory over the next 12–18 months and provide actionable context for AAPL in the Dow Jones 30.

iPhone 17 Momentum and Holiday Strength

Recent analyst surveys and shipment tallies indicate the iPhone 17 has generated significantly stronger demand than many expected. One industry tracker projects Apple will overtake its main rival in unit shipments in 2025, estimating roughly 19.4% share for Apple versus about 18.7% for the competitor. Other estimates put 2025 iPhone shipments near 247 million units, with upside concentrated in the October–December quarter.

Why this matters to shareholders

iPhone revenue remains the largest component of Apple’s top line. Better-than-expected unit sales in the December quarter tend to translate directly into higher total revenue and improved margins from higher accessory and service attach rates during the holiday season, supporting short-term earnings beats and positive sentiment among institutional investors.

The China Rebound: Tangible Recovery, Not Just Talk

Data from market research firms show Apple reversing earlier weakness in China, with shipments reported to have grown modestly rather than declined. Analysts cite renewed demand for the iPhone 17 and a higher replacement rate among consumers, pushing Apple’s share in China above 20% in recent months. This region’s recovery matters because China contributes disproportionately to Apple’s unit volumes and services base.

Implications for revenue and services

A rebound in China supports both device sales and the longer-term services ecosystem (App Store revenue, iCloud, and subscriptions). Even incremental improvements in China can amplify lifetime-value metrics for customers acquired during this period.

DRAM and Component Inflation: A Near-Term Margin Threat

Supply-side developments are less positive. Apple’s multi-year DRAM supply agreements with major vendors are scheduled to expire in early 2026, and industry reporting points to rising memory prices across the board. Analysts forecast that higher DRAM costs will elevate BOM (bill-of-materials) for upcoming product cycles and could lead to modest price increases for new devices or margin compression for Apple if price passthrough is limited.

Quantifying the risk

One research house expects overall smartphone shipments to soften in 2026—citing rising component costs as a driver—while noting that incumbent premium brands with pricing power will fare better than low-cost competitors. For Apple, the trade-off is clear: preserve margins by raising retail prices and risk dampening demand, or hold prices steady and accept margin pressure in forward earnings estimates.

iPhone Fold: High ASP, High Reward

Projections for Apple’s first foldable suggest strong revenue capture even with modest unit share. One forecast models Apple taking roughly 22% of foldable unit volume and about 34% of foldable revenue in the first full year of availability, driven by a premium price point rumored near $2,400. That outcome would materially lift average selling prices (ASPs) within Apple’s handset lineup.

Strategic upside for AAPL

Beyond immediate revenue, a successful foldable launch would reinforce Apple’s premium positioning and expand high-margin product mix—beneficial for gross margin expansion and services monetization tied to a wealthier device user base.

Conclusion

Over the past week, tangible developments have shifted the investment debate from conjecture to measurable drivers: iPhone 17 strength and a real China rebound support near-term revenue upside; expiring DRAM contracts and rising memory costs introduce a quantifiable margin risk for 2026; and the iPhone Fold presents a meaningful opportunity to raise ASPs and revenue share in a nascent premium segment. For AAPL investors, balancing the near-term bullish case against medium-term cost pressures, while monitoring early demand signals for the foldable, offers a disciplined framework for positioning in the Dow Jones 30 constituent.