Euro Dips Nearly 1% Against Dollar Over Past Week as Rate Differentials Persist

Euro Dips Nearly 1% Against Dollar Over Past Week as Rate Differentials Persist

Fri, September 25, 2026

Over the past week ending September 25, 2026, the euro declined approximately 0.96% against the US dollar, trading between a high of $1.149 on September 21 and a low of $1.1368 on September 24, settling near $1.137 on September 25, according to mid‑market data. This underscores the euro’s modest downward trajectory amid ongoing monetary policy divergence.

Euro‑to‑dollar exchange rate data from Wise show the exchange range clearly: a high of 1.149 on September 21, a low of 1.1368 on September 24, averaging near 1.1444 over the week, reflecting a ‑0.958% weekly change. The current mid‑market rate stands at 1 EUR = 1.137 USD.

Persistent Monetary Policy Divergence

The euro’s recent weakness is closely linked to policy divergence between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve. While the ECB has held rates steady since its July 23 meeting, markets now anticipate additional Fed tightening. This dynamic has supported broader dollar strength and pressured EUR/USD lower.

In particular, the ECB maintained its three key rates unchanged at the July meeting, keeping the deposit facility at 2.25%, the main refinancing operations at 2.40%, and the marginal lending facility at 2.65%. Following that decision, the euro weakened about 1.1% against the dollar, while remaining more stable in trade‑weighted terms.

Meanwhile, markets have raised the probability of a Fed rate hike, further bolstering the dollar. One analysis highlighted that EUR/USD may fall even when ECB signals remain hawkish, if the dollar moves on stronger independent momentum.

Outlook: Limited Euro Resilience Amid Headwinds

The exchange rate’s recent performance suggests resistance to sustained euro strength near the 1.15 threshold. With the euro trading near 1.137 and capped below recent highs, prevailing conditions point to continued pressure unless policy shifts occur on either side of the Atlantic.

Looking ahead, key euro‑area economic data, ECB forward guidance, and US monetary policy signals will remain crucial. However, absent material changes in interest rate expectations, the euro’s near‑term outlook against the dollar stays under scrutiny.

EUR/USD currently stands at 1.1387 as of September 25, 2026, 06:17 UTC.