US CPI Oct 24 Confirmed; Canada Jobs Cool BoC Odds

U.S. CPI confirmed for Oct 24 despite federal shutdown

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has kept the September Consumer Price Index release on schedule for October 24 even as parts of government operations are constrained. That confirmation restores a primary near-term macro catalyst for the U.S. dollar and short-term interest-rate expectations.

Why this matters for currencies

CPI is the Fed’s go-to gauge for inflation pressure. A stronger-than-expected print typically lifts Treasury yields and strengthens the dollar as markets price in a higher policy path; a softer print can reduce those pressures and weaken the dollar. With the release now locked in, market participants will reposition ahead of the data, increasing the likelihood of pronounced moves across G10 and EM FX.

Immediate market signals to watch

• U.S. Treasury yields and implied volatility — rapid moves point to stronger USD reaction.
• Fed funds futures — watch shifts in the probability of rate changes priced into the curve.
• Commodity-sensitive currencies (AUD, CAD, NOK) — they can amplify moves if CPI shifts risk sentiment.

Canada adds 60,400 jobs; Canadian dollar steadies

Statistics Canada reported a roughly +60,400 payroll gain for September. The surprise hiring print helped the Canadian dollar pare recent losses and lowered the near-term probability that the Bank of Canada will cut rates at its next meeting.

Implications for USD/CAD and BoC expectations

The stronger labour print narrows the window for immediate BoC easing and prompted traders to trim cut odds, supporting the loonie versus the dollar. Expect USD/CAD to react to any follow-up Canadian data and to yield differentials between Canada and the U.S.; a persistent jobs-driven tone in Canada favors a firmer CAD unless countered by weaker CPI or BoC guidance.

Practical takeaways for traders

Two concrete, verifiable developments matter now: the confirmed U.S. CPI release on Oct 24, which revives a major USD event risk, and the stronger-than-expected Canadian jobs report that has tightened near-term BoC cut expectations. Manage size into the CPI print, monitor yield and Fed-futures moves for directional cues, and treat the Canada jobs surprise as a short-term supportive factor for CAD pairs until contradicted by new data or central-bank commentary.

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics notice confirming the CPI release; Reuters coverage of Canada jobs data and market reaction.