Bitcoin Holds Steady Around $77K as ETF Inflows Persist and Fed Rate Fears Ease

Bitcoin remains resilient, trading above $77,500 today despite a pause in its recent surge, as sustained spot ETF inflows and moderating rate hike expectations provide underlying support.

In Asian trading hours on Thursday morning, Bitcoin rose about 1.5% in 24 hours to trade just above $77,600. This rebound occurred near the average cost basis of active investors—$76,350—suggesting that sellers were being absorbed at breakeven levels. Analysts cautioned, however, that September has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin, with an average return of –2.95% since 2013, suggesting the risk of a pullback in the weeks ahead.

ETF Inflows Provide Stability Amid Elevated Volatility

Despite recent selling pressure, underlying demand via U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs remains robust. While spot inflows recorded a loss of approximately $236 million, the broader trend remains supported by the continued positioning of institutional capital in regulated vehicles. This dynamic helps cushion downward price pressure even in the absence of strong spot-market volume.

Macro Drivers: Fed Watch Tightens Expectations

Macro developments are also shaping investor sentiment. The CME FedWatch Tool places the odds of a September 16 Federal Reserve rate hike at just above 62%, down from over 67% one day earlier and 37% a week prior. This decline reflects growing expectations of softer economic data easing monetary policy pressures. The forthcoming U.S. jobs report and inflation print are likely to further influence market direction.

Volume Recovery Remains Muted

While Bitcoin’s price holds firm, trading volumes remain subdued, suggesting a cautious market environment. With macro uncertainty on the horizon, the current price action appears more like a measured stabilization than a confident breakout.

What to Watch Going Forward

Investors should monitor the U.S. nonfarm payrolls and upcoming CPI release for clues on the Fed’s next move—data that could either reignite bullish momentum or spark a pullback. Seasonal patterns also point to the possibility of September weakness. However, steadfast ETF flows and a sturdy price floor near active investors’ cost base may help limit volatility.

As Bitcoin hovers in the high $70,000 range, the market seems caught in a cautious equilibrium—awaiting fresh catalysts to dictate its next significant move.