Silver Rally: SIVR Soars; BofA Predicts $35 Update

Silver has shown renewed momentum recently: the abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR) pushed to a 52‑week high amid heavy investor interest, even as Bank of America published a more guarded longer‑run view that centers around roughly $35 per ounce. Below we unpack what’s driving the rally, why analysts remain divided, and what to watch next.

Why SIVR and spot prices climbed

ETF flows and short‑term positioning are key. As traders hunt for an inflation hedge and exposure to precious metals, SIVR attracted fresh capital, lifting secondary‑market demand for physical silver. That demand spike, combined with thin near‑term liquidity in some venues, amplified price moves.

Industrial and investor pull

Silver’s dual role — a store of value for investors and a critical industrial input — fuels episodic rallies. Growth in solar panel installations, electrical contacts, and electronics sustains structural demand on the industrial side, while geopolitical uncertainty and interest‑rate chatter prompt speculative buying on the investment side.

Inventory and supply signals

Reports of tighter supplies from miners and inventory draws at key exchanges can tighten the physical balance and quicken upside moves. When ETF creation lags or physical premiums widen, price spikes tend to follow.

BofA’s $35 forecast: a cautionary counterpoint

Bank of America’s longer‑run projection — around $35 per ounce — reflects a more conservative baseline that weighs possible headwinds. Their view factors in potential softness in jewelry and retail buying, the historical tendency of silver to lag gold, and scenarios where rate normalization or a stronger dollar dampens precious‑metal flows.

Why analysts may disagree

Differences in forecasts stem from assumed drivers: some analysts highlight sustained industrial demand and constrained mine output, which imply higher prices; others emphasize macro tightening and mean reversion toward historical gold:silver ratios, which support lower long‑run averages. Both narratives can coexist, producing short bursts of volatility that are hard to predict.

Key catalysts to watch

• Fed moves and rate guidance — shifts in real yields often move precious metals quickly.
• Gold’s price action — silver frequently follows gold’s directional bias.
• ETF flows and physical premiums — steady inflows keep upward pressure; outflows can trigger sharp reversals.
• Supply reports from major miners and inventory changes on exchange platforms.
• Industrial demand updates, especially solar sector orders and electronics production data.

In short: recent momentum pushed SIVR and spot silver higher, but longer‑term forecasts like BofA’s emphasize scenarios that could limit gains. Traders and investors should watch central‑bank guidance, ETF flows, and physical supply signals to gauge whether the current upswing extends or gives way to consolidation.

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