Recent week moves in coffee prices reflect a squeeze between weather-driven supply risk and trade-policy easing. ICE arabica futures climbed over 3% as Brazilian drought and lower certified stocks tightened supply, while a U.S. tariff rollback on Brazilian beans removed a policy headwind. Local retail labor unrest and Vietnamese harvest issues add upside risks. Traders should monitor inventories, Brazilian weather, and crop forecasts for near-term volatility.

A U.S. removal of a 40% tariff on Brazilian green coffee triggered a sharp swing in arabica futures, while instant-coffee duties remain and ICE is changing contract units—reshaping price drivers and supply-chain risk for roasters and traders.

A sudden intensification of drought in Brazil and shrinking ICE stocks propelled Arabica futures to multi-decade highs this week. Tight supply, active roaster buying and shifting hedge dynamics have created pronounced upside risk for prices — and clear choices for investors, roasters and traders.

ICE will retire the century-old C-Price format by 2028 while inventories of Arabica and Robusta have tightened, Brazil faces below-average rain in key regions, and roaster demand plus index-roll mechanics are propping up futures. Vietnam’s rising exports and U.S. tariffs on Brazilian coffee add opposing forces. These concrete developments are pushing up coffee futures while creating downstream pressure for retailers.

Recent week moves show rising Brazilian Arabica forecasts and record ICE Arabica stocks dampening upside, while a sharp fall in Vietnam's Robusta exports and low ICE Robusta lots keep pressure on Robusta prices. Weather, inventories, and regulatory shifts are driving short-term divergence between Arabica and Robusta.