USDA's December WASDE lowered U.S. corn ending stocks while raising export forecasts, sparking higher futures volumes and a year-end price rebound. Rising open interest and tighter stocks/use suggest price support into early 2026.

Recent U.S. developments — a $12B farmer aid package, steady export sales to Mexico and Colombia, modest declines in CBOT activity, and rising pest risk from warming temperatures — have combined to keep corn prices range-bound. The aid provides near-term relief but likely won’t spark a major production shift; export demand supports nearby futures; climate-driven pest threats are a material upside risk for supply if realized.

The USDA's December WASDE raised U.S. corn export estimates and cut ending stocks, while heavy CBOT activity and Deere's production pullback underscore shifting supply-demand dynamics. Policy aid fell short of grower expectations, reinforcing price-supportive fundamentals.

This week’s USDA WASDE cut U.S. corn ending stocks sharply as export demand surged, triggering heavier CBOT trading and tightening global flows after Brazil trimmed its export outlook. Combined with a new U.S. farm aid package, these developments create a firmer short‑term price backdrop for corn.

The December WASDE surprised traders with larger-than-expected U.S. corn ending stocks, prompting heightened futures activity and position unwinds. Record South African corn forecast adds export competition, while farmer confidence climbed in November. These concrete supply developments are driving near-term price pressure and raise volatility into year-end.

USDA’s resumed reporting and a surprise 44-million-bushel rise in U.S. corn ending stocks triggered a notable price pullback. Large Southern Hemisphere harvests, weak export sales and persistent speculative net-short positioning compounded bearish pressure, while heavy trading volumes show active repositioning.