Aluminum prices have surged on concrete supply losses and rising regional premiums. Recent smelter outages, tighter Chinese domestic availability and ramping premiums in the US and Japan are lifting prices toward three-year highs and reshaping forward pricing.

Aluminum surged to near $2,960/ton as concrete supply disruptions—Mozal care & maintenance and output issues at Iceland’s Grundartangi—combined with slipping inventories and regional premiums to tighten physical availability. Short-term strength contrasts with medium-term forecasts pointing to easing by late 2026.

Recent, concrete developments have pushed aluminum prices higher: China’s production cap keeps supply tight while domestic SHFE spot prices have climbed; LME futures held near monthly highs; and U.S. smelters face margin pressure from rising energy costs even as demand from data centers grows. These factors create differentiated regional price drivers and trading opportunities.

Primary supply disruption in Iceland, rising futures, and weak North American demand have combined to push aluminum prices higher. Investors should watch Grundartangi’s long repair timeline, EU CBAM-driven front-loading and changing scrap flows for price direction.

Recent policy and supply shifts in China—production caps, removal of export rebates, and rising scrap costs—are tightening availability and lifting LME aluminum prices. Short-term volatility persists, but structural constraints and spot gains in China point to continued price support into year-end.

A large smelter outage in Iceland and EU moves to curb scrap exports have tightened near-term European supply, sending duty-paid aluminum premiums higher and reshaping flows of recycled metal. Energy costs and the EU’s CBAM are also driving buyers to front-load purchases.