Nvidia-OpenAI Deal Boosts Tech; $100K H‑1B Fee Now

Nvidia and OpenAI ink large-scale infrastructure deal

Nvidia and OpenAI have signed a letter of intent to deploy cloud and on-premises systems using Nvidia hardware, with an initial target of at least 10 gigawatts of capacity and the first gigawatt expected in the second half of 2026. Nvidia also indicated plans to make a multibillion-dollar investment as capacity is brought online. That agreement ties two of the most consequential names in artificial intelligence and gives Nvidia a direct role in scaling the compute backbone OpenAI will use.

Because Nvidia is among the largest weights in the S&P 500 and a major Nasdaq heavyweight, this agreement has immediate index-level significance: added demand for Nvidia compute and accelerated AI deployment reinforce the company’s revenue growth expectations and its position as an index leader.

Near-term signals for investors

• Revenue cadence: the LOI signals multi-year demand for Nvidia hardware, which supports revenue visibility for Nvidia and its supplier ecosystem.
• Sector leadership: large-cap AI-related names that benefit from faster model deployment are likely to outperform within the S&P 500 and Nasdaq while capacity is being built.
• Capital intensity: the scale of required data-center buildout favors firms with access to capital and supply-chain advantages.

White House imposes $100,000 one-time fee on new H‑1B petitions

The White House published guidance instituting a one-time $100,000 payment for new H‑1B petitions filed after 12:01 a.m. EDT on Sept. 21, 2025. The policy explicitly excludes renewals and current H‑1B holders; it applies only to newly filed petitions. The change is a confirmed regulatory step and not a draft — it takes immediate effect for new petitions meeting the timing criterion.

This is a material, concrete cost increase for companies that rely on H‑1B hiring, particularly software firms, IT services providers, and other technology employers that regularly sponsor overseas hires.

Immediate implications for index-heavy tech names

• Hiring costs: firms that planned to bring new talent to the U.S. via H‑1B sponsorship now face a direct upfront fee, raising near‑term hiring expenses and complicating workforce planning.
• Operational options: some companies may accelerate filings submitted before the cutoff, shift recruiting to other visa categories, hire more locally, or expand offshore engineering teams — each response has different cost, timing, and execution trade-offs.
• Index exposure: because large technology firms are key components of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, a structural rise in hiring costs could weigh on profit margins for H‑1B‑intensive businesses and become a drag on those indices’ performance if the effect is broad and persistent.

How the two developments interact for investors

Both items are concrete, index-relevant events: the Nvidia‑OpenAI LOI is a demand catalyst concentrated on a handful of compute and AI leaders; the H‑1B fee is a policy shock that raises costs for a wide swath of tech employers. Together they point to a near-term bifurcation in outcomes for index constituents:

• Winners: capital‑intensive AI infrastructure providers and large incumbents with strong cash flow (for example, major chipmakers and cloud providers) stand to gain from increased AI deployment and large-scale hardware orders.
• Pressure points: software firms and service providers that routinely sponsor new H‑1B workers may see margin pressure or slower expansion if they cannot easily absorb or mitigate the new fee.

Investors should track confirmed implementation details, corporate commentary on hiring and capital spending, and near-term filings from companies that may accelerate H‑1B petitions ahead of enforcement deadlines. Those signals will clarify which S&P 500 and Nasdaq constituents capture upside from the AI buildout and which face tangible cost headwinds from the visa change.

Bottom line: The Nvidia–OpenAI infrastructure agreement strengthens demand for Nvidia and allied AI suppliers, boosting those names’ index impact. The White House’s $100,000 fee for new H‑1B petitions is a concrete policy change that raises hiring costs for many tech firms and creates a separate, measurable headwind for H‑1B‑dependent index constituents.