Trade Wars and Energy Shocks Roil Oil, Metals, and Agriculture Commodities

Global commodity markets are experiencing heightened volatility in April 2025, with sharp divergences emerging across energy, metals, and agricultural sectors. Escalating trade tensions, shifting energy policy, and evolving supply chain risks have collectively disrupted pricing and reshaped demand patterns, causing major adjustments across the board.

The U.S.–China tariff conflict and renewed geopolitical pressure on Russian energy exports are creating ripple effects that span everything from crude oil to copper and even artisanal food products.

Oil Slumps as Tariffs and Geopolitics Disrupt Energy Trade

Brent crude prices fell to $63.47 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped to $60.21, marking the second consecutive week of losses. The retreat is largely driven by fears that the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China will curb global growth and reduce oil demand. Analysts also highlight a reduction in speculative buying as investors await clarity on global economic forecasts (Reuters).

On the policy front, the UK and G7 nations are reportedly considering a stricter price cap on Russian oil, acknowledging the ineffectiveness of the current $60 threshold. Russia has largely bypassed the cap via shadow fleets, prompting calls for a more enforceable mechanism (The Guardian).

In the U.S., energy producers are feeling the heat. New tariffs and retaliatory trade measures have driven domestic oil prices down 16%, putting pressure on producers, especially in the Permian Basin. Smaller operations are facing liquidity challenges, which could slow production growth into the second half of the year (WSJ).

Metals Surge While Agriculture Battles Supply Chain Risks

Copper has emerged as 2025’s breakout commodity, with U.S. copper futures jumping 26% year-to-date to reach $5.02 per pound. The surge is being fueled by anticipated supply disruptions due to tariffs and increased domestic demand from renewable energy and construction sectors. The price gap between U.S. and international copper is now the widest on record, underscoring market fragmentation (WSJ).

In agriculture, energy-linked commodities like coal are in the spotlight. The UK recently enacted an emergency measure to secure coal supplies and keep British Steel furnaces operational. This highlights vulnerabilities in industrial supply chains and the government’s willingness to intervene amid global disruptions (Financial Times).

Meanwhile, a surprising twist in the agricultural sector comes from rising thefts of luxury food items. Sophisticated criminal rings are targeting artisanal cheeses and cured meats, exploiting weaknesses in high-value food distribution networks. These thefts, often involving impersonation of legitimate buyers, point to broader supply chain security issues (The Guardian).

As April unfolds, commodity traders and supply chain managers are navigating a complex environment shaped by geopolitical shocks and shifting consumption dynamics. Flexibility, risk mitigation, and real-time intelligence will be critical for stakeholders looking to stay ahead in these turbulent times.