Oil Volatility, Aluminium Emissions, and Gold Uncertainty Define Mid-May Commodity Shifts

Oil Slides Despite Tariff Truce as Inventory Builds Raise Alarm

Crude oil prices experienced a mild retreat on May 14, 2025, as short-term optimism surrounding the U.S.-China tariff pause was offset by rising U.S. inventories. Brent crude fell 0.6% to $66.24 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also declined 0.6% to $63.31. This followed a brief rally earlier in the week after Washington and Beijing agreed to suspend tariff escalations for 90 days, offering a temporary boost to global risk sentiment.

However, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a surprise build of 4.3 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories, curbing the bullish momentum. Further complicating the supply narrative, the U.S. announced new sanctions targeting companies that facilitate Iran’s oil exports to China. These moves reignited concerns about supply disruptions and geopolitical instability in the Middle East.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs noted that President Trump favors WTI prices between $40 and $50 per barrel to support lower domestic energy costs ahead of the 2025 election cycle. Despite this, WTI continues to trade above $60, leading the bank to forecast a potential pullback to an average of $56 per barrel by Q4.

For the full oil market breakdown, visit:
👉 Reuters – Oil Dips After Inventory Jump, Despite Trade Truce
👉 Business Insider – Trump’s Preferred Oil Price Could Shape Market Trends

Aluminium and Gold Trends Reflect Emission and Geopolitical Pressure

Beyond energy, industrial and precious metals are navigating transformative trends. Aluminium producers are under scrutiny as climate activists highlight the metal’s high carbon footprint. Responsible for about 2% of global greenhouse gas emissions, aluminium production is shifting toward renewable-powered smelting and low-carbon technologies such as inert anode systems. Recycling is playing a pivotal role, using just 5% of the energy required for virgin production.

Meanwhile, metallurgical coal—essential for steelmaking—has seen a resurgence in demand. President Trump’s policies supporting domestic manufacturing and onshoring have buoyed this niche coal market. Industry forecasts now project the metallurgical coal sector to reach $18.4 billion in value by 2032, as steel production ramps up globally.

Gold markets remain volatile, acting as a hedge against geopolitical risks. Tensions between India and Pakistan have renewed safe-haven demand across Asian markets, with investors flocking to physical gold and exchange-traded commodities. Analysts are divided on whether gold can sustain its rally, given the crosswinds of inflation data, trade dynamics, and monetary policy uncertainty.

To explore metals trends further, see:
👉 Reuters – Aluminium’s Emission Problem and Industry Response
👉 Times of India – Gold Price Outlook for May 2025

As we move further into Q2, commodities will continue to respond sharply to geopolitical maneuvers, emissions policy, and global supply metrics. Traders should brace for a dynamic environment driven by both policy and climate imperatives.