Oil Output Hikes, Cocoa Shortages, and Copper Surge

Energy Prices Climb as OPEC+ Maintains Output Strategy

Oil prices have made a notable comeback as OPEC+ reaffirmed its plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, matching the pace set in June. Brent crude is currently hovering around $63.97 per barrel, while WTI sits near $62.09. The group’s disciplined approach aims to regain control over the market after months of internal discord and overproduction from some members.

Goldman Sachs anticipates a similar production boost in August, though it projects OPEC+ will maintain output beyond that point. Analysts cite concerns about weakening global growth and the increasing contribution of non-OPEC suppliers as reasons for a more measured long-term approach.

Further pressuring the energy outlook are low U.S. fuel inventories and forecasts of an above-average hurricane season. These factors are contributing to tightening supply expectations, which could drive prices even higher in the weeks ahead.
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Cocoa Hits Record Highs While Copper Becomes 2025’s Breakout Star

Cocoa has become the unexpected headline commodity of 2025, with prices skyrocketing due to catastrophic harvest failures in West Africa. Climate disruptions and the spread of plant disease have devastated output in key regions like Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, triggering the worst supply crunch the market has seen in decades.
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Meanwhile, copper is cementing its status as 2025’s standout performer. Prices have soared 26% year-to-date, reaching $5.02 per pound on the back of surging industrial demand and geopolitical uncertainty. The threat of U.S. import tariffs has also fueled speculative activity, leading to a rise in physical deliveries and more aggressive trading strategies in the futures market.
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Elsewhere in metals, zinc has experienced downward pressure due to reduced demand in China. Still, some analysts suggest this could be a buying opportunity, with potential price recovery anticipated if industrial output rebounds in the latter half of the year.

Agricultural Markets Brace for Volatility

In the agricultural sector, Chicago corn futures have finally stabilized after months of aggressive selling. Between February and May, speculators dumped over 420,000 contracts, causing a steep 10.5% price drop. Now, the market’s focus has shifted to the critical U.S. summer growing season, where weather conditions will play a pivotal role in shaping the next major move.

Money managers have slightly increased their net long positions in soybeans, while trimming exposure in wheat and soybean oil. The shift suggests a cautious but optimistic outlook in select agricultural commodities, depending largely on upcoming crop yield data.

As June 2025 unfolds, the commodity landscape remains highly dynamic, driven by a complex mix of geopolitical tension, climate stress, and supply-demand imbalances. For investors and traders, staying informed on production decisions, harvest updates, and trade policies will be essential in navigating the volatility ahead.