Oil, Gold & Metals Volatile as U.S. Tariffs, China Export Curbs Shift Trends

Oil Prices Struggle as Demand Slows and Trade Tensions Escalate

Commodities markets are experiencing heightened volatility this April, with oil at the epicenter of global investor concern. As geopolitical tensions mount, particularly between the United States and China, crude oil futures have swung sharply. Brent crude recently rebounded to $65 per barrel, driven by temporary optimism around potential U.S. tariff exemptions on automobiles and electronic goods, as well as a surprise uptick in China’s crude imports.

However, the broader trend remains bearish. The International Energy Agency (IEA) slashed its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast from 1.03 million barrels per day to 730,000 bpd, citing increased risk from protectionist trade policies and slowing global economic activity. At the same time, HSBC adjusted its Brent crude price target downward from $73 to $68.50 per barrel, reflecting both economic softness and higher-than-expected OPEC+ output levels (Reuters).

The oil market’s fragile balance underscores broader investor uncertainty as the Biden administration (through continued Trump-era tariff enforcement) signals no imminent resolution to escalating global trade disputes. According to The Guardian, the IEA now expects a substantial slowdown in oil consumption as countries brace for prolonged economic stagnation.

Gold Surges While Industrial Metals Feel the Squeeze

Amid this uncertainty, gold continues to shine. Investors are flocking to the precious metal as a safe haven, with gold prices surging over 23% year-to-date, hitting record highs in the process. With the U.S. dollar weakening and stock markets showing volatility, gold is increasingly being seen as a hedge against both inflation and geopolitical instability. A recent Reuters report noted strong institutional and retail demand driving this rally.

Meanwhile, industrial metals are facing pressure from both demand and supply dynamics. China has implemented new export restrictions on critical minerals, including rare earth elements and graphite—materials vital for the production of electric vehicles (EVs), smartphones, and defense systems. These restrictions are particularly problematic for the U.S., which remains heavily reliant on China not just for raw materials but also for processing capabilities, a vulnerability highlighted in Axios.

The EV sector, which had been experiencing a surge in production and sales, now faces potential slowdowns as supply chains grow increasingly fragile.

Consumers Begin Stockpiling as Price Hikes Loom

The commodities volatility is already hitting home. Anticipating rising prices due to potential new tariffs, U.S. consumers are stockpiling essentials. Retailers report significant increases in purchases of shelf-stable goods like olive oil, coffee, soap, and canned food, as Americans prepare for what could be months of inflated grocery bills. According to MarketWatch, this behavior mirrors early-pandemic hoarding patterns, but now with a focus on tariff-driven inflation.

As policymakers and corporations grapple with an increasingly fragmented trade environment, the effects are filtering into everyday goods, investor portfolios, and supply chains—making commodities one of the most closely watched sectors this quarter.