Commodity Markets React to Trade Disputes, Geopolitical Risks, and Shifting Demand

Commodities are facing fresh volatility as geopolitical tensions, trade negotiations, and evolving supply-demand trends shape the latest movements across energy, agriculture, metals, and precious assets. As of April 28, 2025, investors are watching key developments that could significantly impact commodity prices in the coming weeks.

Oil Prices Steady as OPEC+ and Trade Tensions Loom

Energy markets saw modest gains to close last week, with Brent crude trading at $66.96 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) holding at $63.11. Despite concerns over slowing global economic growth, prices remained resilient, buoyed by expectations that OPEC+ may announce production increases during their upcoming May 5 meeting.

Adding to the uncertainty, geopolitical instability surged after a deadly explosion rocked Iran’s Bandar Abbas port, a major hub for oil exports. This incident has kept traders cautious, with concerns that any escalation in regional conflicts could further tighten global supply (source).

Analysts suggest that crude prices may remain range-bound until there is more clarity on U.S.-China trade talks, which continue to influence global demand expectations. Short-term volatility is likely if either side announces significant policy changes that affect tariffs or trade flows.

Agricultural and Metals Markets Experience Mixed Signals

Grain markets are also feeling the impact of trade dynamics. Speculators have maintained bullish bets on Chicago corn and soybean futures, hoping for a breakthrough in U.S. trade discussions that could revive export demand. Yet, favorable weather conditions in the United States and strong South American crop projections are balancing optimism with caution.

Meanwhile, U.S. farmers continue to struggle with reduced exports to China, particularly in soybeans and pork, as tariffs remain in place (source). With the critical planting season underway, market participants are keeping a close eye on potential policy shifts that could alter export flows.

In the metals sector, gold surged to a record high of $3,500.10 per ounce, driven by investors seeking safer assets amid rising market turbulence. With U.S. Treasury yields softening and the dollar facing downward pressure, gold’s appeal as a hedge against uncertainty has intensified. Analysts expect strong demand to persist, especially if geopolitical risks escalate further (source).

Additionally, the industrial metals market is undergoing transformation as new futures contracts for lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and cobalt hydroxide are set to launch in June. This move by Benchmark Minerals Intelligence and ICE Futures Europe reflects the growing demand for transparency and standardized pricing in battery materials critical to electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors (source).