Cocoa and Gold Rally While Oil and Wheat Prices Swing

Record-High Cocoa and Surging Gold Reflect Safe-Haven Demand and Crop Failures

Cocoa and gold are leading the commodities rally in 2025, fueled by a blend of geopolitical turmoil, economic uncertainty, and climate disruptions.

Cocoa prices have soared to unprecedented levels, reaching $12,931 per metric ton — nearly triple their value from a year ago. The surge is primarily due to severe weather conditions in key West African growing regions, which have devastated crop yields. As demand remains steady, the supply shortfall is putting pressure on global chocolate manufacturers and food producers. According to Reuters, cocoa has topped the list of best-performing commodities for the second consecutive year.

Meanwhile, gold continues its bull run, spiking to a record $3,357.40 per troy ounce. The precious metal is gaining favor as a safe-haven asset amid rising concerns over inflation and recession risks, following President Donald Trump’s sweeping U.S. tariff hikes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has warned the tariffs are “significantly larger” than anticipated and could hamper economic growth. As a result, investors are piling into gold to hedge against market volatility and weakening economic signals.

Investment banks like Goldman Sachs and UBS have raised their gold forecasts significantly, with some projecting potential peaks up to $4,500 per ounce if a deeper downturn materializes. Business Insider notes that this could make gold one of the most lucrative asset classes in 2025.

Oil, Wheat, and Metals Reflect a Divided Commodity Outlook

Oil markets are showing weakness amid a downgraded global growth outlook and rising supplies. Brent crude is projected to average $63 per barrel in 2025, down from earlier expectations, with Goldman Sachs citing increased OPEC+ output and global surpluses of up to 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026. The drop is further compounded by reduced demand projections due to the U.S.–China trade standoff, according to Investopedia.

Agricultural markets are also feeling the pinch of erratic weather patterns. Wheat futures in Chicago spiked to $9 per bushel in March — the highest in over a decade — driven by crop failures in key regions. Market watchers suggest prices may remain elevated if planting conditions fail to improve.

Elsewhere, industrial metals are presenting a mixed picture. Copper has held strong above the $10,500 mark, supported by resilient infrastructure demand. However, iron ore prices in China are softening due to oversupply and subdued construction activity, despite Beijing’s ongoing stimulus efforts.

In summary, commodity markets are being tugged in multiple directions by trade policies, inflation fears, and weather disruptions. As volatility intensifies, investors are keeping a close eye on supply chain risks and central bank responses to determine where the next commodity trend may lead.