Currency Market News

Geopolitical tensions involving Iran lifted oil prices and drove safe-haven flows into the US dollar, while India’s forex reserves hit a record $725.7bn—supporting the rupee and giving the RBI more scope to manage volatility.

A U.S. Supreme Court decision curbing unilateral tariff authority and fresh U.S. growth/inflation data pressured the dollar, lifting the euro. Separately, weaker Japanese CPI renewed downside pressure on the yen, boosting USD/JPY toward the mid-155 area. Markets are repricing Fed odds and revising carry and cross-rate strategies.

Fresh Federal Reserve minutes signalled patience on rate cuts and left room for further tightening, keeping the U.S. dollar firm and putting pressure on major pairs such as EUR/USD. Separately, Banxico minutes and hawkish U.S. policy nudged the Mexican peso lower, with USD/MXN testing key support levels amid geopolitical safe-haven flows.

Federal Reserve minutes from the recent meeting signaled a generally hawkish stance, pushing Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher. Separately, dovish forward guidance from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand triggered a sharp drop in the NZD. These two developments are driving short-term FX flows: dollar strength across major pairs and targeted weakness in NZD crosses.

A mix of softer-than-expected U.K. labor figures and weaker Canadian inflation pushed sterling and the Canadian dollar lower, giving the U.S. dollar a broad-based lift. Separately, Japan’s underwhelming Q4 GDP stalled recent yen strength and drove USD/JPY back above 153. This article breaks down the numbers, market reaction, and near-term trade implications.

Fund managers hold the most bearish U.S. dollar stance in over a decade, per a Bank of America survey, leaving the greenback near four-year lows. That broad dollar weakness is pressuring emerging-market currencies; the Indian rupee slipped 8 paise to 90.74/USD as dollar strength and foreign outflows offset relief from lower crude prices and equity gains.