Bitcoin Slides to $104K: ETF Outflows Surge - Nov5

Bitcoin underwent a sharp bout of selling in early November, shifting from around $110,000 to roughly $104,000–$105,000. This piece breaks down the precise price moves, derivatives and ETF flows, and the technical levels traders should watch. The aim is clear: present concrete data from the past week and translate it into actionable context for traders and investors.

Price action this week: a quick chronology

Over the last seven days Bitcoin slipped below established support, moving from near $110,000 to intraday lows in the $104K–$105K band. The drop followed concentrated selling during the first days of November and coincided with a wave of withdrawals from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. That combination turned what could have been a routine pullback into a more pronounced correction.

Key support and resistance zones

Technically, traders noted a breach of the $108,000 level, with immediate downside attention focused on the $106,000 to $100,600 range. A sustained failure through those levels would open the door to a test of the $100,000 psychological mark. On the upside, a recovery back above $115,000–$118,500 would be an early sign that sellers have exhausted themselves and buyers are reasserting control.

Volume, derivatives and ETF flows: what moved the price

Concrete, quantifiable flows dominated the narrative this week.

ETF outflows

U.S. spot-Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $1.15 billion in net outflows over the week, with about $186.5 million pulled on November 3 alone. Institutional-scale withdrawals like this create predictable selling pressure on spot markets because ETF issuers and authorized participants rebalance and redeem shares for cash or underlying BTC.

Liquidations and leveraged positions

Long liquidations were significant: more than $400 million of long exposure was wiped out in concentrated bursts, affecting roughly 162,000 traders. Those forced sales amplify downward moves as margin calls cascade, especially in thin liquidity windows.

Volume and open interest

Offsetting some bearish signals, activity metrics spiked: 24‑hour spot volume surged roughly 140% to about $54.45 billion, futures volume jumped ~149% to roughly $95.49 billion, and open interest rose about 6.7%. These figures indicate market participants are not exiting en masse but are actively re‑positioning—shorts and longs both get reset during high-volume volatility.

Drivers behind the flows: non-speculative catalysts

The recent moves were not random. Two non-speculative drivers stood out:

• Central bank guidance: comments from the Federal Reserve signaling that a December rate cut is not guaranteed reduced risk appetite among institutional allocators, pressuring risk assets, including Bitcoin.
• Sector rotation and macro themes: heightened attention and capital rotation into AI-related equities created a crowded trade that, when jittery, retrenched and nudged correlated risk assets lower.

Why ETF flows matter more now

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have grown into a dominant on‑ramp for institutional and retail capital. When sizable net redemptions occur, custodians and APs must source liquidity, which can mechanically pressure spot prices—especially at times of thinner order books.

Trading implications and scenarios

What should traders expect next? Below are pragmatic scenarios based on current flows and technical structure.

Bear case

If ETF outflows continue and macro sentiment stays risk-averse, the $106K–$100.6K zone could fail and re-test the $100,000 handle—or slightly below. Additional long liquidations would accelerate the move.

Bull case

If outflows stabilize and buyers step in around the low-$100K area, the combination of rising supply-in-profit (noted near $116K) and heavy volume could allow for a reclaim of $115K–$118.5K. A dovish pivot from central banks would be a clear catalyst for this scenario.

Positioning and risk management

Given heightened volatility, traders should size positions conservatively, use layered entries, and set stop levels aligned with the $106K–$100.6K and $115K thresholds. For longer-term investors, the recent volume spike suggests accumulation opportunities for dollar-cost averaging rather than all-in timing attempts.

What to watch this week

• Daily ETF flows and authorized participant behaviour—are outflows continuing or reversing?
• Volume and open interest trends—sustained elevated activity typically precedes directional resolution.
• Macro headlines—Fed commentary and major sector rotations (e.g., AI flows) that shift institutional risk appetite.

Conclusion

Over the past week Bitcoin declined from roughly $110,000 to lows around $104K–$105K, driven primarily by significant U.S. spot‑ETF outflows of about $1.15 billion and concentrated long liquidations exceeding $400 million. Those flows were accompanied by a sharp rise in both spot and futures volume and a modest increase in open interest, indicating active re‑positioning rather than wholesale exit. Technically, the breach of $108K put focus on the $106K–$100.6K zone and the $100,000 psychological level; a recovery above $115K–$118.5K would shift the balance back toward buyers. Traders should monitor ETF flow data, derivatives liquidations, and macro commentary closely—these variables will determine whether the current pullback resolves into stabilization or deeper correction.