Bitcoin Slides Below $95K as ETFs See Big Outflows

Quick take

Bitcoin dropped roughly 9–10% in mid-November, slipping below the $95,000 level after heavy redemptions from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and notable selling from long-term holders. At the same time, institutional buyers continued to accumulate, creating a tug-of-war that has defined recent price and volume dynamics.

What happened: concrete drivers behind the slide

Large ETF outflows accelerated the decline

ETF flows were the dominant short-term catalyst. Several days of net redemptions culminated in at least one single-day withdrawal of about $868 million from 11 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs—the largest one-day withdrawal since February 2025. Mid-month figures show additional large outflows (about $492 million on November 14 alone), contributing to a weekly redemption tally north of $1 billion. Those redemptions removed liquidity and pressured sellers to hit market bids, amplifying the downward move.

Long-term holders trimmed positions

On-chain data indicated that long-term holders unloaded meaningful amounts of Bitcoin over a 30-day window—reports put the figure around 815,000 BTC, the heaviest long-holder outflow since early 2024. When investors who normally act as a stabilizing force sell, it increases supply into thinner order books and makes price moves steeper.

Offsetting force: institutional accumulation

Strategy/MicroStrategy went shopping

Against this backdrop of redemptions and long-holder selling, Strategy (MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin acquisition vehicle) disclosed a purchase of 8,178 BTC during a mid-November window, spending roughly $835.6 million at an average price of about $102,171 per coin. That lifted Strategy’s disclosed holdings to roughly 649,870 BTC. Institutional buying like this can absorb some selling pressure and signals conviction at sub-$100K levels.

Technical and on-chain context

Price, volume and leverage dynamics

Bitcoin’s closing price fell from roughly $110K at the start of November to the $94–95K band by mid-month—a monthly pullback near 9%. Trading volumes fluctuated during the decline: days with large ETF outflows saw higher sell-side volume, while quieter windows displayed thinner liquidity and larger price moves on modest orders. Importantly, several analysts observed that deleveraging was largely complete—perpetual futures open interest normalized relative to market capitalization—reducing the immediate risk of forced liquidations driving another cascade.

Where support and resistance matter

Short-term support clustered near $94K–$95K; failure below this zone could invite test of lower intra-month lows, while reclaiming $100K would be an early technical signal that selling pressure is easing. Traders should watch ETF flow data alongside on-chain transfer volumes and futures open interest to gauge whether fresh downside is flow-driven or just a liquidity vacuum.

What this means for traders and investors

• Sentiment is cautious but nuanced: ETF outflows and long-holder selling have pushed fear higher, but institutional purchases show some actors view weakness as an entry.
• Flows drive short-term moves: Expect price gyrations to correlate closely with daily ETF flows until redemption pressure stabilizes.
• Watch leverage metrics: If futures open interest remains muted and funding rates are neutral or negative, the chance of another liquidation cascade is lower.
• Key levels: $94K–$95K support; $100K resistance; a decisive break of either will likely set the next directional leg.

Analogy: liquidity as a riverbed

Think of liquidity as a riverbed: when it’s wide and deep, large orders move water slowly and predictably. When ETF redemptions drain liquidity, the river narrows—then even moderate sellers can create rapids. Institutional buyers planting bids in that narrowed channel help rebuild depth, but it takes sustained inflows to restore the original flow characteristics.

Conclusion: short-term pain, mixed signals for recovery

The recent pullback under $95K was driven primarily by concentrated ETF redemptions and unusual selling from long-term holders, with institutional accumulation providing a partial offset. Technical indicators suggest deleveraging has reduced immediate tail risks, but daily flow data will likely dictate price action in the coming weeks. Traders should monitor ETF flows, futures open interest, and on-chain transfer volumes to decide whether current weakness is a buying opportunity or the start of further consolidation.

If you want, I can produce a daily tracker of ETF flows and on-chain metrics that highlights stress points and accumulation windows—useful for timing entries or exits during these flow-driven episodes.