Gold Breaks Records and Oil Wavers as Trade Wars Stir Markets

Gold Soars to New Highs Amid Flight to Safety

As economic uncertainties deepen in April 2025, commodity markets are undergoing significant turbulence—led by a historic rally in gold prices. Spot gold surged to $3,391.62 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures climbed to $3,402.80, marking record highs. The rush into precious metals reflects growing investor anxiety over the escalating U.S.-China trade war, rising inflation fears, and central bank policy instability.

According to Reuters, demand for gold has been further fueled by a weakening U.S. dollar and continued gold purchases by global central banks. This flight to safety is not limited to gold alone—silver and platinum also rose by 0.8% and 1%, respectively. Palladium, however, edged down by 0.2%, under pressure from softening industrial demand.

The surge in precious metals underscores market skepticism toward global monetary policy responses, particularly as fears of stagflation—a combination of high inflation and stagnant growth—gain traction. With rising tensions over U.S. Federal Reserve independence, safe-haven demand is expected to remain strong in the short term.

Oil and Agriculture React to Tariffs, Supply Fears, and Demand Shifts

Crude oil markets are experiencing notable volatility, swinging between geopolitical developments and shifts in energy demand forecasts. After falling more than 2% in the previous session, Brent crude rebounded by 0.8% to $66.77, while WTI climbed to $63.59 per barrel. These movements followed renewed optimism over U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, which could boost global oil supply, offset by mounting concerns over slowing economic growth caused by ongoing U.S. tariffs on imports.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently slashed its 2025 global oil demand forecast by 300,000 barrels per day, now projecting a growth of just 730,000 barrels/day. Analysts point to the chilling effect that widespread protectionist trade measures are having on industrial activity and transportation fuel demand. (Investopedia)

Meanwhile, agricultural commodities present a mixed picture. Cocoa prices have spiked amid worsening drought and crop diseases in Ghana and the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest producers. These supply disruptions are expected to increase costs for global chocolate production, with some retailers warning of higher prices ahead. (The Times)

Grain markets, on the other hand, showed temporary calm following the release of the April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which largely met expectations. However, traders remain alert to weather-related risks and potential trade escalations that could upend global food supply dynamics. (StoneX)

Conclusion: With trade policy in flux, inflation on the rise, and central banks under scrutiny, commodity markets remain highly reactive. Gold continues to shine as a hedge against macroeconomic instability, while energy and food sectors grapple with the ripple effects of geopolitics and environmental disruption.